In Allied Irish Banks again.  It has been acting pretty poorly lately.  Looking to move up with the current swing.  1,000 AIB @ $2.36.

This is a bit of a dangerous play, but a fade in volume on Sinvac Biotech should provide for a nice exit point.

FNFG is not a new story to readers of this blog.  They are a regional player and really highlight what is good about the banking business.

Plain and simple.  This is how you want a bank that you invest in to be talking…

To say we’re on a real high is an understatement. We’re absolutely clicking on all cylinders.

John Koelmel (4/28/2009)

CEO: First Niagara is in a ‘sweet spot’ – Business First of Buffalo: .

How much is enough when entering into a trade?  A trade, people, not an investment.

I enter the transaction with a goal in mind, if you don’t do so, you are GOING to allow your emotions to get involved in your decision.  It is almost impossible not to.

Generally, the profit goal in a trade will be in your head as a dollar value.  If I trade $2500 in a stock or option, I want to see $175-$200 out within 24-72 hours.   I never really analyzed the numbers, but my feel is always around an 8% gain.  When I enter a position, I will bracket for the 8%, or I will pick my limit prices at entry that would allow for my 8% within the short term trading range of the investment vehicle.

I didn’t pick the 8% number out of the blue, I just ended up at the number after reviewing what my trading goals had been.

Now, let’s discuss how unreasonable that 8% might be.  If someone came to you in late 2006 and told you they would guarantee you 8% per year for the next couple of years, what would you have said?  Who knows.  Hindsight says you would have certainly said yes.  Your crystal ball would have jumped at the number.  Greed says that you would have balked.  What I am getting at is 8% is a good return for a year, much less 24-72 hours.  Am I unreasonable?  Not really.

Here is my problem.  I wan’t 8% upside and yet I am willing to take a loss of more than 20% to get it.  Really, that seems to be my threshold on a loss.  I will sit on it for 20%.  Has it worked?  So far, yes.  Out of 21 trades, I have profited on 15 of them.  However, the percentage down on my losses has been too high.  I have got to work on that part.

Did I mentioned that I hated it when I bought Sinovac Biotech?  So much so that I sold my shares for a small loss and decided it was a good short if the price (and volume) broke down.  Well, that happened.  In fact, I can see this falling to the low 2′s.  I shorted 600 shares of SVA @ $2.60 and coverred @ $2.40 today.  It is all in my trading log.  Profit of $103.95 (6.7% after trading costs).

If you’ve noticed Bob has been much more focused on actually trading stocks. I on the other hand (Scott) have been more focused on general business stories, etc. I have not traded frequently and am not all that intersted in doing so right now. See my previous post about my lack of research being a factor. 

But, having known Bob for the better part of 20 years, that about describes us to a T. Bob is detail oriented. He does code. He builds databases and has to be atuned to every single line of code. I on the other hand, am not good with details. I am a risk taker/entrepreneur type that does not do details very well if at all. But, we work well together because we are different. Bob will occasionally try his hand at big picture stuff and I will occasionally get detailed. Eventually, we always fall back on what we do best.

Shell 1Q profit down 62 percent to $3.49 billion.

I am getting to the point where I cannot stand reporters. This blogging thing is great because guys like you and me have a voice. It might be small but at least we can throw things out there to be heard. 

This headline for Toby Sterling says Shell 1Q profit down. Obviously. BUT, they still made $3.49 BILLION in profit for the quarter. $3.49 BILLION! Reporters want their story read. I of course click on the headline thinking it’s a story to be worried about but, in the first paragraph see their profit number. I stopped reading the article to create this post. 

America survives and eventually thrives in spite of our journalists and media. I am at a stage in my life where I no longer listen to the local news, or read the front page or local news front page. I’ve grown to just glance hoping for a story worth reading. They are hard to find.

Bank of America CEO faces test at annual meeting.

Usually, the person who gets us into a mess is not the same person who gets us out of the mess. I think it’s probably time to get a new face in the CEO’s at Bank of America. For that matter, I think it’s also a good idea to get a new head at Citigroup. All of these banks should be thinking about new leadership. We are heading into a new way of banking. There hopefully will be new regulations and policies that will prevent us from the old way of banking. A new way of banking deserves a new man/woman to head the change.

Consumers, home prices boost recovery hopes.

A little more reason for hope. I think the economy turns around when consumers get confident that jobs are safe. If the 90% of America, who still have jobs decide to starting spending again, the economy will start to recover. Until then, I believe it will be rocky.

For those of you who saw the movie Pearl Harbor, do you remember the scene where Ben Affleck is sitting at a table somewhere in England and the English solider comes over to him and asks him why Americans are so anxious to fight? Then Affleck looks at him and delivers, in my opinion his best line ever, and says, “we’re not anxious to fight, just anxious to matter” or something close to that. As a parent, businessman, diciple of Jesus Christ, and friend, I think that was sums up exactly what I am anxious to do. I’m anxious to matter.