Bob and Scott » Uncategorized

Treasury Said to Link Citigroup Sale to TARP Payback

BobL — Mon, 07 Dec 2009 14:05:18 +0000

Citi wants the treasury to sell their stake in the bank, treasury feels that it needs to maintain that stake to ensure that the $45 billion payback will be coming.

Man, these bankers are not looking forward to the possibility of reduced pay and government control…Go figure.

Treasury Said to Link Citigroup Sale to TARP Payback (Update1) – Bloomberg.com.

U.S. Seizes Colonial BancGroup and Sells It to BB&T

BobL — Mon, 17 Aug 2009 14:27:09 +0000

This is one of the largest failures in the past couple of years. It is pretty apparent that we are far from out of the woods. I am not sure that we will retest our March lows, but things are not exactly rosy.

- Commercial real estate crunch is likely.
- More failed financials likely (AIG ?)
- Jobless recovery has been propped by government money. That will run out, in time.

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On Friday, Colonial BancGroup, a large lender that rode the excesses of the nation’s real estate boom, was seized by federal regulators, making it the largest bank failure of 2009 and one of the most costly since the collapse of IndyMac Bancorp last year.

via U.S. Seizes Colonial BancGroup and Sells It to BB&T – NYTimes.com.

Adam Carolla Interviews Matt Taibbi

BobL — Mon, 10 Aug 2009 22:09:33 +0000

If you are interested in hearing more from the writer of the article in Rolling Stone regarding Goldman Sachs (Matt Taibbi), you should listen to the Adam Carolla Podcast from 8/10/2009. There is some profanity in the podcast, so if you are easily offended…

If you aren’t familiar with Adam Carolla, give him a listen. I have been an avid listener for years and his podcast is terrific. Very smart humor from the guy that Jimmy Kimmel dubbed “American Genius”.

Adam Carolla Podcast

Citigroup below $3

ScottH — Mon, 29 Jun 2009 15:28:17 +0000

Citigroup is hovering around $3. It has been hanging around $3 for a couple of days and might be ready to fall below $3. If it does, it might keep falling.

USA Soccer – Confederations Cup

ScottH — Mon, 29 Jun 2009 12:53:25 +0000

I have been a strong critic of USA soccer. The Confederations Cup was a very good example of what America is and isn’t. At then end of the day, they are inconsistent. But, they did come to play against Brazil. The outplayed Brazil in the first have and had a 2-0 lead. Dempsey and Donovan scored impressive goals and Tim Howard played fantastic. Unfortunately, Brazil turned it on in the second half and scored 3 goals to win. The confederations cup was a very strange couple of weeks. The US started terribly. They lost and looked bad against Italy and Brazil. Then, they looked strong against Egypt and survived against Spain.

The final was a great game to watch. I was proud to be an American soccer fan. I think the final gives Americans something to build on. As many people have said, the team needs to play consistent. They cannot get run off the field against Costa Rica in a World Cup qualifying match then beat Spain and put a massive scare into Brazil.

Picked up some Beazer

BobL — Tue, 16 Jun 2009 14:47:00 +0000

Update 6/17/09: I am out of BZH. Took a big %’age loss and hope to avoid looking back at this (I feel I could have gotten out at 2.15′ish with patience). I took $2.02 to cut my losses and run. Knowing that BZH is in violation of some of its debt covenants is not a good thing. The company is in desparate need of a debt refinance and the market has not been kind to companies in that position. Without new financing, the debtholders could force the companies hand and move them to Bankruptcy. Let’s not forget about what the shorts could do if they pile on and crush the common.

How quickly things change. I looked for a trade based upon the stock range and got caugh up in a debt downgrade that brough BZH to the fore. I wouldn’t be shocked to see a close of around $1.65-$1.72 on BZH (currently at $1.99).

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Call me crazy, but I like housing. If we are at, or near our bottom, housing will recover. I like BZH as a trade in this case. If I wanted to make a long term play in the sector, I would consider an ETF to minimize my risk. I couple of the housing/builders ETF’s are XHB and ITB (I own ITB in a long term account).

I am looking at BZH as a trade. When you watch stocks enough, you can get a sense of where the movement is. BZH has a pretty wide range which could make for good trading. I have been in and out between $2.44 and $2.76 in a long term account. With BZH earnings pretty far off, the stock should trade in a range with the market. My hope is to exit at around $2.57 for a nice little gain.

Consider the fact that housing starts were @ 2.2 million in December 2005. The are about 500k now. Are we at a bottom?

We’ll see how that one works out. If recent trading is an indicator for you, you should be shorting the stocks that I am buying. Patience will be the key on my open positions. I took a big loss on a trade a couple weeks back that would have been well into the money right now. Patience!!

Oil at $71

ScottH — Wed, 10 Jun 2009 13:12:30 +0000

Crude Oil

Speculative Oil traders and OPEC control our entire economic future. Is that insane? I think I might write a post a day devoted to this subject. Either that or everyone better just go buy a horse and buggy. If traders think we are running out of oil then I understand the run up in oil. If we are running out, then we have to find alternate sources of transportation. The horse and buggy seem like a logical green friendly strategy. Personally, I work from home. I really don’t use the car very often so I could get by with a horse and buggy. Someone tell the oil traders that, since I am using less gas, there is less demand for oil. Then prices might go down.

How trading makes you feel

BobL — Fri, 29 May 2009 13:25:29 +0000

The market is a funny thing. Whenever we look back, we wax poetic about our brilliance and why we did what we did. But, in most instances, the feeling is this…

We either break out higher, lapse into a trading range, or do some serious damage. Yep, I’m calling it — either up, sideways or down! Brilliant

This quote comes from Phillip Davis (http://philstockworld.com/) who is a founder of Phil’s Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders.

Paralysis by Analysis

ScottH — Tue, 28 Apr 2009 13:09:58 +0000

I have gotten to the point where I am experiencing paralysis by analysis. I am starting to look at a whole bunch of stocks but, because I am also the owner of a business, do not have enough time to research the stock enough. The result is I am on the fringe with a bunch of stocks but not confident enough to pull the trigger on any of them. Instead of paralysis by analysis, it’s probably more of a unwillingness to take risk knowing I haven’t done the homework. Setting aside the time to focus in on 5-10 “trading” stocks is what I’m trying to do.

23.4% Short

ScottH — Sat, 25 Apr 2009 14:51:08 +0000

C (Citigroup), as of March 28th, has 23.40% of it’s shares shorted. If that isn’t an indication of how volatile this stock will be over the next several months, maybe years, I don’t know what is. I bet there is allot to be learned historically about the percentage of shares shorted at one time (with a particular market cap) and thier future performance.