I’m really interested in today’s consumer confidence number. My hope and guess is it will be higher than the 39.2 number for April. Even though the uneployment rate is at 8.6%, 91.4% of Americans workers still have jobs. They untold story is how many of these “working” Americans are really struggling with hourly cutbacks, falling incomes, etc.

Assuming the consumer confidence number somehow accounts for this, the number will be an important gauge. If we can get the 91.4% of Americans feeling better about the economy, they may start spending. Once we loosen the purse strings, we will see the economy improve. There are so many different catalysts but my belief is consumer confidence is the best indicator for the economy. 

My guess for May is 41.

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